2012 Auburn Preview

August 8, 2012 Steve 6 comments

Today we review the eighth SEC team in our series, the Auburn Tigers. Other reviews so far:

Kentucky

Biggest Loss

Michael Dyer. He didn’t leave under the best terms, but he was the best thing on a disappointing offense last year, and his absence will likely be felt this season. The Tigers make the move to a pro style offense that will allegedly feature the kind of between the tackles running that demands a physical every-down back like Dyer. Sophomore Tre Mason and junior Onterio McCalebb have both shown flashes of talent at times, but neither one has proven effective between the tackles. Transfers Mike Blakely and Corey Grant will both take their shots at the role, but with equal uncertainty at quarterback, Michael Dyer’s return would have been a tremendous boost to a new offense that doesn’t feature very many pieces recruited to play it.

Most Important Returning Player

Phillip Lutzenkirchen. It’s hard to believe that a player with eight touchdown catches might be under-utilized, but Lutzenkirchen could make a solid case for that. Arguably the best tight end in the country, and certainly the most valuable, expect him to become a more integral part of an offense that will most likely try to play more of a ball control style both as a matter of clock management and to help build confidence in whoever eventually wins the quarterback battle.

Highest Ranked Recruit

Jordan Diamond. The four-star offensive tackle has the frame already to compete in the SEC and his ranking as the fifth tackle overall in the country would suggest his head is capable of following. The Tigers would benefit from having him learn sooner rather than later as they are young across the line. They exited the spring with only one player older than sophomore on the line, including two freshmen. The two deep is even younger, with freshmen backing up four of the five positions and a sophomore behind the fifth. Given their youth, Diamond will have an opportunity to play early if his ability matches his ranking.

Most Important Off-Season Acquisition

Defensive Coordinator Brian Van Gorder. Maybe. I hinted at this in comments on the Mississippi State preview with commenter Barney, but while I do not question Van Gorder’s ability, I question whether or not he’ll be allowed to use it. Barney’s argument was that Gene Chizik would be a fool not to hand over the reigns to an NFL coordinator, but it’s not quite that simple. BVG was a coordinator in the NFL, but he was a soon-to-be former NFL coordinator prior to taking the Auburn position as it was no secret that Mike Smith was ready for a change in Atlanta. Having an “NFL Guy” is a recruiting tool, it’s not a basis for a defense. That’s not to say that Van Gorder isn’t qualified at the college level. His Georgia defenses were very good. The thing that makes me think he was hired for the NFL label and not his coaching is Chizik. Ted Roof was the scapegoat for the declining defenses of the past three seasons, but most likely, they were Chizik’s units in much the same way as most other head coaches with a history on one side of the ball or the other. Nick Saban has a defensive coordinator, Urban Meyer has an offensive coordinator, but no one questions whose really in charge. It is possible that Chizik has decided to take his hands off the defense and let BVG run the show. For that reason, I’ve picked Van Gorder as the biggest offseason acquisition, but I’m not sold that he’s the panacea for the defense that Auburn fans are hoping for simply because I’m not sure his boss will get out of the way.

Biggest Game

Alabama. Always Alabama.

Projected Record

Clemson Tigers – L

@ Mississippi State Bulldogs – L

Louisiana Monroe Warhawks – W

LSU Tigers- L

Arkansas Razorbacks – L

@ Ole Miss Rebels – W

@ Vanderbilt – W

Texas A&M Aggies - L

New Mexico State Aggies – W

Georgia Bulldogs – L

Alabama A&M Bulldogs – W

@ Alabama Crimson Tide – L

Final Record – 5-7*

*I do not believe this will actually be the way the season plays out. I think Auburn will probably have a winning record, but it’s going to require the kind of bounces they’ve found a way to get the past couple years, and I just can’t predict bounces.

Uncategorized none

#1 | Written by Barney about 9 months ago. Reply

Where to begin?

Losing Mike Dyer hurts but it was going to happen eventually. The guy does not have his priorities straightened up. I believe he’s now been kicked off Arkansas State’s team as well. Its a shame to see a guy with so much NFL potential fall so far. Now, Onterio McCalebb does not have the size to be an every down back that can run the ball up the middle of the defense 20 or 30 times a game. Thats just not the type of player he is, and it never has been. He is a guy that Loeffler will try to get into space to score quick touchdowns for us. Tre Mason is a guy who was still getting touches at various points in the season, despite the fact that he was the 3rd back on the depth chart. He is an extremely talented back who I believe will make us forget about Mike Dyer very quickly. Mike Blakely is also solid too. Its also worth mentioning that these guys will be running behind an All-American transfer Fullback in Jay Prosch. The point is that this unit does not lack in talent whatsoever. They simply lack in proven experience.

If Chizik were just a horrible defensive coach, you might have a valid point. But he isn’t. Chizik has had great defenses at every coordinator job he’s ever had. The problem with Auburn’s defense throughout 3 of Chizik’s last four years has been a consistent lack of depth and a defense that did not display the characteristic aggressiveness of a Chizik coached defense. That philosophical disconnect that Gene Chizik had with Ted Roof is out of the picture. Van Gorder and Chizik both believe in aggressiveness on the defensive side of the ball. And of course, Chizik has finally, finally managed to fix the depth problem that Auburn has dealt with every year he’s been on campus, other than 2010.

The simple fact is that Auburn, from a pure talent perspective, can match any team in this league. In 2 out of the last 3 years they’ve had a top 5 recruiting class. Auburn has a very talented roster. This is a team that won 8 games last year, despite the fact that they only had 4 returning starters on offense and 4 on defense. This year they return 15 starters and are a much more experienced football team, so it stands to reason that under normal circumstances, Auburn should be able to improve on last years record, right? Well having to replace two coordinators in a single season are not normal circumstances, so I will predict that Auburn instead matches their 2011 regular season mark of 7-5 with 2013 being the big comeback year for Auburn.

Tennessee will be a better team than Auburn this year for the first time in a long time.
- #2 | Written by Steve about 9 months ago. Reply
  
  They’ve had good recruiting classes, but where’s the development? Or even the retention. The offense is based on recruits for a different offense — specifically the backfield, but also some of the line. The defense may have talent, but outside of Corey Lemonier, no one is really playing like it. The secondary is horrible, and won’t get better losing Jonathan Rose. There isn’t a single linebacker on the team that would start for any other team in the top half of the league. It’s great they they have starters returning, but those starters return from the worst passing defense in the SEC and the second worst total and scoring D (thanks, Ole Miss). Based on pythagorean wins, Auburn is due for a tremendous step back, and that’s without accounting for a severe scheme change on offense with ill-fitting players and something on defense that will either also have to endure a large change (which is usually more painful on defense than offense — see Saban at Bama, Grantham at Georgia) or will continue down it’s current path, which is unhealthy. In five years as a head coach, Gene Chizik has actually had five consecutive declines over the previous year’s performance. Losing Gus Malzahn’s play-calling has been downplayed, perhaps fairly so, since we have nothing to evaluate Loeffler’s playcalling on (Steve Addazio called plays at Temple). it would almost take a 2010-like fluke for Auburn to win 8 games this year (fluke here defined as actual wins over pythagorean wins).
  - #3 | Written by Barney about 9 months ago. Reply
    
    Pythagorean wins? You’re going to have to explain that one to me.
    
    I’m not going to challenge you on Auburn’s pass defense. They were terrible, but the only direction they can possibly go is up. They’re returning 7 of 8 defensive backs, so it is a reasonable expectation to see some moderate improvement from the unit. I would simply say that I hope that their struggles last year related more to scheme and coaching rather than an actual talent deficit as you seem to suggest.
    
    However, you criticism of Auburn’s defensive line and linebackers is not justified, I don’t think. Darren Bates is nothing short of a tackling machine. As a Junior the guy had 104 tackles and 5 games with double digits. He’s back this year, and I would not be surprised if he had an even better season under Van Gorder, who is specializes in developing linebackers. Jake Holland is another, bigger linebacker who I’m expecting to take a big leap forward this year. Auburn is returning 4 of their top tacklers among linebackers. Along the defensive line Auburn returns the entire 2-deep and should see big improvement from Gabe Wright, who started last year as a true freshman, along with Corey Lemonier.
    
    In regards to the change in strategy, I would admit that their is significant uncertainty with the offense, but what I’m unwilling to admit is that there has been a wholesale change in the overarching philosophy in the offense. We’re still going to commit to the run game, just like we did under Malzahn. You should also remember that despite the advertised switch to a pro-style offense, Loeffler does have some experience with the style of offense we used last year and should no how to best utilize the players we do have. The defense is not seeing a change in philosophy whatsoever. We’re still going to be playing out of a 4-3 base with the only difference being less of a focus on the tampa 2 zone style of play and more emphasis on manning up and being aggressive.
    
    In regards to Gene Chizik’s career, you consider a 2-10 record with one team to an 8-5 record with a different team a decline? And you expect a coach who is returning 4 starters on both sides of the ball a year after winning the NCG and going undefeated to match his previous 14-0 record? Your evaluation of Gene Chizik’s career isn’t just unreasonable, its ridiculous. The man has never lost a bowl game, not once as a coordinator or head coach. His teams at Auburn have consistently shown an ability to win football games that no one expects them to be able to win and to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. I know Auburn’s rivals are infuriated by this quality in Auburn football, so they call it a fluke. But how many consecutive flukes does it take before something becomes a trend or a tendency? Auburn’s ability to win close football games is not a coincidence. It is a testament to this coaching staff.
    - #4 | Written by Steve about 9 months ago. Reply
      
      You misunderstood what I said. Statistically, his defenses have been worse year over year. His first year at Iowa State, his defense was worse than ISU’s the previous year, and it was even worse the next. Same at Auburn. His first team there was worse on defense than Auburn’s was the previous season, and that’s persisted each of the following two seasons. Only the defense’s stats, not the won loss record.
      
      As for Pythagorean wins, here’s the wikipedia explanation. For instance, Auburn last season was +2 because they won 8, but only had 6 Pythagorean wins. In 2010, Auburn overachieved by 3 wins, which is practically a record (only 2004 UT overachieved more, and they followed it up with a losing season) — hence referring to it as a fluke. If you’re more comfortable calling it an outlier, we can do that as well.
      
      Regarding the players you mentioned: Gabe Wright is coming off an injury from the spring and it’s still uncertain what level he’ll be able to play at, if at all. As for Darren Bates and the other returning tacklers, not all tackles are created equally. For instance, Auburn was worst in the league in surrendering third down conversions. Those all ended in tackles, but they failed to accomplish what they should have — a third down stop. Making a tackle and making a tackle after a player has gained a lot of yards are not the same thing. Bates had a lot of tackles because he had a lot of opportunity for tackles since the defense couldn’t get off the field. If you want proof, just look at who led the SEC in tackles: of the top five players, two were from Auburn (Bates was 3rd overall), two were from Kentucky and one was from Miss State. No one denies that Alabama, LSU, and Georgia had the best defenses but their players don’t appear in the top ten in the league. Why? Because their tackles actually stopped drives which prevented more opportunities to collect tackles. Regarding Jake Holland, I can appreciate your optimism for his improvement, but it’s just hope at this point. And there is no real depth behind them as Chizik has only signed two ILBs since he got there, one of which is Holland.
      
      As for the change on offense, it is wholesale. Again, like tackles, not all runs are created equal. The difference in the offense Malzahn ran and the one Loeffler supposedly will run isn’t in the way the QB gets the ball out of his hands. It’s how the guys in front of him block and protect. The line play changes significantly. If you have undersized backs trying to run through a line manned by players designed to block in a spread scheme, there will be growing pains. If players are used to looking to the sideline before every snap, that’s going to be something they have to overcome. If they are used to really simplified play-calling then there’s going to be an adjustment there, too. Add to that two quarterbacks who underwhelmed last season that fail to separate themselves from each other and that’s a lot going on, and none of it is a positive. To be fair, Kiehl Frazier is largely believed by fans to have taken the lead as QB, but that doesn’t seem like much to cheer about, given his 32.14 passer rating from last season. That’s the lowest of any QB in the SEC — backup or otherwise — in the past five years, with exception to Logan Gray in 2009 who had an identical stat line: 12 attempts, 5 completions, no TDs and 2 INTs. The difference, though, is that Logan Gray did not earn the starting QB job with that line.
#5 | Written by Tusk about 9 months ago. Reply

Hate to say it (I mean REALLY hate to say it) but Auburn could be the surprise team this year. Van Gorder was a great hire and has 9 returning starters to work with, Lemonier is a beast. Key to me is if AU can get any decent QB play or production. That said, I don’t see it coming from Moseley and Frazier is just too young & inexperienced. Those first two games are huge. 0-2 would be disastrous, but 1-1 could be interesting. 2-0…. doh!
#6 | Written by Weller Ross about 9 months ago. Reply

I have them going 6-6, by beating Texas A&M and Georgia, but losing to Vandy…

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